Is Mozilla dead?

There are many concerns rising up about Mozilla's future. I round them up here.

I assume you know why this topic is important, you know Mozilla has it's own open source browser engine, and you why we need more Browser Diversity.

Mozilla developed Gecko for more that 20 yeaas. Currently there is 3 major browser engines: Gecko, Webkit and Blink (Chromium).

But will Mozilla survive?

Here is my round up:

The problem

So what's is the Mozilla's problem? What led to here? Note it's a process that made here. Here is my analysis.

Is it political positoning?

Some say it's political positioning in US. While I aggree political positioning is not good for Mozilla. But. I believe their users especially outside US barely are aware of that and care for that when choosing a browser.

Note, I'm talking about direct impact of taking politcial positioning, not the coscequences of how Mozilla politcal believes would eventually refelect in their product and business.

Is it the Mozilla people are Social Justice Arogant?

Is it becasue the salary is twiced for the CEO?

Is it too much changing Firefox?

Some say Firefox has been redesigned too much and User can't stand it. I don't think this has a major role since most of applications add new features everyday.

Yes. Firefox has some bad UX a lot of places. But redesigns where mostly positive.

In fact. I think Firefox should have more redesigns, especially in Mobile. More about this later.

Is it performance or technical issues?

This one, is realy a important problem, even when Firefox has the most efficient browser out there now.

This one should be sliced into to periods. First period is a while ago when Firefox was crashing a lot. That was a problem that Mozilla engineer could control. They fixed it eventually, maybe a little late, but now it's much much better. Anyway those user who migrated to Chorme have no reason to come back, especially getting used to Google features or extensions exclusivly available in Chrome.

The second period starts after the first period. Now Mozilla has already lost many users, and Chrome is domminating. From here forth, technical problems are less in control of Mozill's Engineer. Firefox has kept up to the compition and it is the winner in some aspects.

But, since when Google has a majority of user's share it impliments it own new non-standards features, and other browsers have no choice that impliment them other ways many of things that work on Chrome, won't work on otehr browsers and people will blame them.

So, Google is leveraging it's Monopoly, becaoming the un-official de-facto standard of the web.

It seems W3C has more of passive role here.In fact, there has been many cases that W3C removed a standard that browser where obligated to impliment, because the big browsers didn't. This is relly questionable. What's good about a standard that is not respected? Some of those features never implimented: html imports (removed in favor of focuing more on web components), Tail Word optimisation, CSS Subgrid,

So, what happens as result is, Mozilla continously tries to catch up, but is always behide Chrome, because simply Mozilla don't what the next Google Chrome feature, untill it lands to users in Chrome after several months of development. Then, it's firefox turns to catch up.

Users don't know this story behind the sscene. They blame Firefox becasue their video call app is not working in Firefox. And alwasy a foot behid is no good. So they leave Firfox.

This can be fixed, but not in technical land. It's business problem actually, fueld by Google having more thatn 70 percent of user shares. More about the solution later.

Taking Mobile for granted

This one, I believe is the most important problem. When Mobile devices took the world by storm, there was a great opportunity for browser to start a new chapter and Mozilla, I beleive didn't take seriously.

Remember Chrome didn't introduced it's mobile version untill 2016. Before that there was only boring Adroid browsers.

Not justifying Mozilla moves, but I have to say it is easy to judge it from this point in the time. Now we know 70 percent of web users use Mobile devices. But then in 2009-2014 It seems a ambitious and risky to dedicate much of the resources to developing mobile app, and cutting resources on a desktop browser, especially for a non-profit which is always low on budget.

For Google, it thinks of developing Chrome Mobile app is one of those dozens of project with 90% fauiliare chance, but whciever project suceed, will cover up the cost invested on all others. It's a no brainer. For Mozilla, with limited resources it's not.

Any way, not only they lost opportunity in the early days, Mozill keep losing it. To this day, it still seems Dektop is their main focus. At least it seems to me.

Their mobile app had the worst UX and it's not pollished. While a Google Designer put days to figuring out the best posible backgrounf color and icon for Chrome Mobile Address Bar.

So this is waht I ment they need more redisigns. Of course not arbitarty moving buttons and menus around stuff arround and calling it a redesig, but a well User-centered reserched redesign. I hope to see a overhoul redesgin of Firefox in iOS and Android.

Firefox foxus is one things that keeps my hopes alive. While it's not your regular browser, it's really novel and unique, and in much cleaner UI. It's like an attempt tp build the most private browser ever. It could be your main browser if you are willing to trully embrace minimalism in your life and let tabs go without fear of missing out. Actually, it was for me for a few months.

Waht is the future of Mozilla

Mozilla will not die. Not becasue Moailla has immportal! But, the same thing made it close to death, will keep it alive! And we still need to be concerned about the Mozilla and future of the web.

The most important question here is whether Mozilla stays a almost dead orgnization or will it have a come back?

What is the source of all problems

Yuo probably know what I want to say here. All problems goes back to money, or more accuratly, a sustailable independent revenouand buisness model.

Google is the main source of income for Mozilla, from the first days. Back then, Firefox being the dominator of the web and Google have no browser, this business model made lots of sense. But, it's long time that it does't. Specially when you define your mission to fight for privacy and Google has bad reputaion in this era, and you are also have directly competing product.

Google has kept paying Mozilla to keep Google search as it default search engine, while it doesn't need it. Google Search will be doing ok without being the default in Firefox. google even donated 500M to Moaill last year. So why ot donate to your dying competitor? Why not just let it die and get more of market share?

I can think of these reason why Google keep paying Mozilla:

1. To keep Mozilla close and somehow under control

Mozilla has created an extension to prevent Facbook from tracking you. It's call Facebook Container (To me it sounds like Facebook Box of Sahme, lol). But, there is no dedicated extenstions from Mozilla prevening Google. Yes, the general tracking protection prevents Google trakers too. But, Mozilla never explicitly fighted Google in privay wars.

2. To make Mozilla dependent

When your parent always feed you, you don't learn to how to make money. This is the case here. Weather it was planned in Google or unconciosly has happend, now Mozilla is dependent on Google, and therfore under control of Google. Mozilla now alway have to mind their steps, and check Google's interests before taking action.

3. Creating a good brand for Google

Mozilla has a good brand for privacy and Thigs for google is oposite. Beside, recently people more care about privacy and more developers know that browser diversity matters. At the same time, Google has on it's agenda to make a better brand for users and create a better relation with developers. Think of web.dev from google, think of it's initiative to help other browsers support new technologies. Think of it's http 203 podcast. These activities are all for making a better brand. Now, in the midst of this, a negative act, pressuring out Mozilla could ruin all thes efforts. Just think of all the tweets that will follow the day after, the same way that did for Google Artificial Inteligence. So, Google here is at least carefull and try to keep thing smooth. Even if Google wants to Mozilla be dead, it prefers an smooth and calm death than a sudden collapse.

4. A dead Mozilla is far more dangerous than a alive one wiht 5 percent of market share

Imagine annoucing Mozilla dead, while people is already scared of how good AI has become. Everyone will freak out. The news take socail media. campaing starts and Goverments and legislators reflect. That will not end up good for Google. Maybe a new law will be pass that limit who Google and other business alot. Maybe Google gets a worse reputaion for privacy. The thing is no one can predict how it will end up. it's unpredictable, even for Google. That's why Google don't want it.

A Quick Though Exploration: can a dead Mozilla can bring more online privacy to the society, than the currecnt alive Moailla?

This is really interesting question. Maybe we should stop saving Mozilla, let it dye so the society wakes up and do something?

I don't think the consequences of that society awakening will be lasting, even with passing new laws. Casue, The Tech world is complex and complicated. It's not easy to create laws for Tech world, and most of political don't have basic ideas about how tech works. Simply put, they don't are not qualified to create teck legislatiosn.

And Even if they somehow manage to come up with perfect laws, We still need orgnizations like Moailla. Becasue Privacy and Web is alwasy eveloving. You can't slove it once for ever. Soon after those legislations Google and other corporate find their way around it, but now people are missing Firefox, and other Mozilla products.

But it's intersting that this contradictory could rise for Mozill, but not other private componiens.

The contradiction is rooted in how Mozilla defienes itself. We know it's a Foundation but also there is Mozilla Corporation. For a Corporation, going bankrupt is always bad. For a non profit organiztion everything is centered around a mission. Often non-profit organizations state "we hope that the problem X is solved soon and our existence will be not nesseccesary in the near future."

I mentioned this duality of Mozilla becasue, it is what they need to accept it and in fact, I believe a big part of the high-level solution.

Ok, What is the solution?

High level Solution

Google won't let Moailla die. A dead Mozilla is far more dangerous for Google than an alive one, holding 5 percent of user's share.

Low level solution

Concolutions

Making money is not bad. But making money and staing independent, avoiding conflict of interests and staying true to you mission is super hard, if not impossible.

We need more Mozillas.

Why is it important?

Mozilla stands for privacy and putting user first. But that's not the most important thing about it.

Mozilla is has developed it's own browser engine, and that's the important. Why?

Becasue, World Wide Web by natiure should be free and folloe